The Biggest Dining and Menu Trends for 2014
10 January 2014A roundup of predictions for this year from the most respected sources.
Courtesy of the Kendall College School of Culinary Arts
Consumers didn’t increase their visits to restaurants in 2013, but when they did visit they spent more. Indeed, consumer spending was up 2% over a year ago, driven by growth in average check size. What does 2014 look like in terms of foodservice patronage? Where will Americans eat, and what and how will they choose to eat when they dine out?
The Kendall College School of Culinary Arts in Chicago keeps its finger on the pulse of menu and dining-out trends, and for 2014 consulted three leading global information companies—plus the National Restaurant Association’s annual What’s Hot culinary forecast that surveyed nearly 1,300 members of the American Culinary Federation—to compile the biggest predictions for the foodservice industry in 2014.
Fast Casual Grows Fast
If last year was a struggle for full-service restaurants, casual dining and midscale/family dining, the fast-casual segment continued its growth trend in 2013, with traffic up 8% in the year ending September 2013 compared to same period a year before, according to The NPD Group. Says Mintel, new fast-casual concepts focusing on customization, quick service and convenience are gaining customers who are willing to pay more for better quality and healthier foods. Better-burger chains, health-focused concepts and made-to-order pizza restaurants are on the rise.
“Kendall College opened its fast-casual operation several years ago recognizing the growing demand for freshly prepared, wholesome meals among students, faculty and staff on the run,” says Renee Zonka, RD, CEC, CHE, dean of the Kendall College School of Culinary Arts. “In conjunction with our full-service Dining Room and Café du Jour, our fast-casual restaurant’s quick and affordable offerings ensure that high-quality, flavorful meal solutions exist for everyone on campus.”
Every Daypart Is a Snack Daypart
As the snacking lifestyle goes mainstream, diners are paradoxically less interested in snack menus per se, says Technomic. Millennials see dollar and dollar-plus menus as the snack menu. Limited-service restaurants are paying more attention to snack-size handhelds and car-friendly packaging; they’re also stepping up their game with grab-and-go and market-style offerings. As full-service-restaurant customers move away from meat-and-potatoes meals, operators are catering to the snacking-and-sharing ethos with pairings, trios and flights from all parts of the menu—from soup trios to beer samplers to retro popsicle-flight desserts.
Convince Me It’s Real
Consumers want to know that what they’re eating is real—in every sense of the word, says Technomic. Today’s menus describe items far more thoroughly, listing not only the ingredients, but also where they came from and how they were prepared. Local sourcing is more important than ever, but beyond that is the idea of being true to place.
“Trust is a part of value to the diner, and it’s one of the biggest overriding trends in foodservice,” says Zonka. “What’s leading this trend is our constant need for assurance that we are eating the right things, that our food is safe, that we are not ingesting pesticides or anything that will someday prove harmful.”
On Tap
The NRA’s What’s Hot survey for 2014 found that the top five alcohol and cocktail trends will be micro-distilled/artisan spirits, locally produced beer/wine/spirits, onsite barrel-aged drinks, culinary cocktails (e.g. savory, fresh ingredients) and regional signature cocktails. According to Technomic, tap technology is revolutionizing the beverage world: barrel-stored cold-brewed coffee that can be sent through repurposed beer taps, facilitating a new kind of coffee bar; soda-water taps that allow chefs to create their own fruity soft drinks; wine-on-tap tasting stations in high-end supermarkets; keg-wine bar concepts and retrofits; RFID-card-controlled self-serve beer-tap walls at high-tech pubs.
Everything Is Political
Deliberately or inadvertently, restaurant operators got caught up in political controversy as never before in 2013. Some suffered customer backlash after expressing views related to Obamacare, “family values” or other topics, but others saw increased traffic, says Technomic. Consumers are increasingly aware that the personal is political—that their choices and those of the restaurants they patronize regarding food, treatment of employees and suppliers, sustainability and the environment have real consequences. Indeed, when asked which current food trend will be among the hottest menu trends 10 years from now, environmental sustainability topped the list among ACF chefs in the NRA’s What’s Hot survey, followed by local sourcing. Consciously or unconsciously, diners will gravitate to concepts that share their worldview, and some restaurants will promote this cultural identification.
Tablets on Tables
Restaurants are offering nutritional and other information via tablets and digital menu boards while reducing order, wait and check-out times, Mintel reports. iPad orders placed tableside will be a point of differentiation for a few tech leaders, says Technomic, but we’ll primarily see a bring-your-own-device system of advance and inside-the-restaurant ordering—as well as more customer feedback and interactive conversations. In the back of the house, increased use of iPad communication will make new menu items easier to roll out. When it comes to technology trends, the chefs surveyed by the NRA ranked menus on tablet computers as the top trend, followed by smartphone apps for consumers (ordering, reservations, daily deals, etc.), smartphone apps for chefs (recipes, table management, POS tracking, etc.), mobile payment and social-media marketing.
Hot (and Not So Hot) Menu Items This Year and Beyond
Forays into less-familiar ethnic cuisines, from Korean to Scandinavian, are partly responsible for growing interest in pickled, fermented and sour foods, according to Technomic. Korean kimchee, as well as pickled onion, jalapeño, ginger, radish and more, are showing up everywhere from ethnic eateries to burger joints. On the beverage menu, the trend is seen in sour cocktails as well as new flavor combinations with sour notes—a reaction to last year’s candy-sweet drinks.
Rising commodity costs for beef means that chicken will be big again in 2014, Technomic predicts. The latest protein star, however, is pork—appearing in regional barbecue items, in Hispanic and other ethnic fare, in charcuterie and as pulled-pork sandwiches. Also getting time in the spotlight are lamb and game meats, from duck to bison. Beyond meat, look for creative center-of-the-plate egg dishes as well as vegetarian alternatives, from mushrooms to beans to soy-based products.
According to the NRA’s What’s Hot survey, the top menu trends for 2014 focus on local sourcing, environmental sustainability and nutrition—children’s nutrition in particular. These trends have been gaining momentum for several years, indicating that these wider themes influence the national culinary scene.
The five items with the highest points as perennial trends this year are fried chicken, Italian cuisine, frying, barbeque and eggs Benedict. The five items that gained most in trendiness since last year in the annual survey are nose-to-tail/root-to-stalk cooking, pickling, ramen, dark greens and Southeast Asian cuisine.
The five items with the highest ranking as a waning trend in 2014 are foam/froth/air, bacon-flavored chocolate, fish offal, gazpacho and fun-shaped children’s items. The five items with the largest drop in “hot trend” rating are Greek yogurt, sweet-potato fries, new cuts of meat, grass-fed beef and organic coffee.
Compared with five years ago, items that have remained top 20 food trends include locally grown produce, healthful kids’ meals, gluten-free cuisine, sustainable seafood and health/nutrition. Items that have dropped substantially down the list from the top 20 food trends in 2009 include gelato, micro-greens, flatbreads, tapas/meze/dim sum and dessert flights.
Photo: Lamb is among the meats Technomic predicts will gain time in the spotlight in 2014, and these Moroccan merguez prepared by Christopher Koetke, CEC, CCE, HAAC, vice president of the Kendall College School of Culinary Arts and Laureate International Universities Center of Excellence in Culinary Arts, are great on a bun or as part of a tagine or couscous. While traditionally stuffed into sheep casing to form links, this freshly made lamb sausage seasoned with ground anise, cumin, coriander, sumac and cinnamon can also be cooked as patties. Courtesy of Kendall College/Eric Futran.