The small egg drives home an oversized economic principle that at-home cooks to award-winning chefs are becoming very familiar with – the law of supply and demand. 

You don’t have to be an economist or chef to feel the results of this consistent law. Just order eggs from your distributor or go to your local supermarket and see if eggs are available and if so, how much they cost. 

Consumers were accustomed to paying around $2 for a dozen eggs but have seen prices more than double in recent months. The average cost of twelve large, grade-A eggs hit $4.95 in January, up 53 percent from the previous year that also saw egg prices rise due to inflation, according to federal data. Some shoppers are encountering prices as high as $10 per dozen, with several grocery stores enforcing purchase limits.

The law of supply and demand dictates that when supply goes down prices increase. In early 2022 a deadly outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) or Bird Flu was first recorded. The nation’s egg farmers sounded the alrm. According to Edward Hoffman, vice president, marketing and communications for the American Egg Board, the U.S. has lost more than 126 million egg-laying hens. “Since the start of the outbreak, over 136 million birds have been affected across all poultry sectors,” he said.

Once the highly contagious HPAI is discovered on a farm, the entire flock is culled. The repopulation process requires multiple steps including government approvals and takes more than six months. Hoffman said, “Egg farmers ready to repopulate must obtain chicks in stages to repopulate their farms and raise young hens. Supplies of new chicks are also diminished due to the extensive amount of HPAI repopulation taking place. In addition, once day-old chicks are moved to farms, it can take 18-20 weeks before the hens are ready to produce eggs.” 

The economic effect of the deadly outbreak is not near the end. Hoffman said that the egg industry needs a sustained period of four to six months with no additional HPAI detections on egg farms to stabilize the supply and allow egg farms time to recover. 

The virus has also affected nearly 1,000 dairy herds and almost 70 people, including one person who died since 2024, according to Reuters. 

With an increase in egg demand from the Easter season rapidly approaching, the government is stepping in with new funds to combat the outbreak. The announcement outlined that $1 billion would go toward egg import options, providing additional relief to farms affected by the outbreak and exploring vaccine research. 

U.S. egg producers are working together to fill foodservice demand as they are able. American Egg Board’s Director of Innovation Nelson Serrano-Bahri said, “Despite these challenges, farmers are prioritizing the continued production of safe, nutritious eggs for foodservice operators. Real eggs play a crucial role in recipe formulation, cooking and baking. They provide more than 20 functional properties, including aeration, binding, browning, structure, moisture and flavor. While egg substitutes exist, none match the quality, versatility and nutritional benefits of real eggs. Eggs are an irreplaceable ingredient in culinary applications and remain a compact, natural source of key nutrients.”